As expected, the Bank of England has followed the example of the ECB and Fed and voted in favour of holding its base rate.
The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold rates at their September level of 5.25%, after raising the base rate 14 times from its 0.1% historic low in December 2021.
With inflation at 4% – twice the BoE’s 2% target – there was clearly little appetite for easing policy.
In fact the only surprise from the Bank’s announcement was the fact that two members of its MPC voted for a rate increase, with only one voting for a cut. The first three-way split for quite some time.
Commenting on the BoE decision to stick at 5.25% Paresh Raja, CEO of Market Financial Solutions, said: “The Bank of England continues to walk a tightrope. Sticky inflation is making them hesitant to cut rates, but a rise in company insolvencies and the general impact of a higher cost of borrowing on the UK economy is piling on pressure to drop the base rate”.
“Either way, we now know the base rate has almost certainly peaked, and it is just a matter of time before it comes back down. This shift has already started to have an impact on lenders and the property market in recent months. Mortgage, bridging and BTL rates all have started to fall, and there are the green shoots of recovery emerging after two challenging years, with early signs suggesting buyer demand and house prices are picking up.
Raja concluded: “The Bank might hold again – perhaps multiple times – before the cuts come, but the market is benefitting as that seemingly inevitable decision draws closer.”
Octane Capital chief executive Jonathan Samuels commented: “It appears that the Bank of England’s slow but steady approach to managing the economy has finally started to pay off, with inflation falling sharply this week.
Generally speaking, today’s decision to keep the base rate held should bring further positivity for the economy and the property market, in particular. But while it’s likely to stoke the fires with respect to the increasing number of buyers returning to the market in recent weeks, they are best advised to proceed with caution.
Swap rates have been gradually climbing so far this year in anticipation of today’s decision and so an ongoing degree of certainty where the base rate is concerned doesn’t necessarily mean lower mortgage rates are guaranteed.”
Open Property Group chief Jason Harris-Cohen pointed out that any amendment to the base rate would take time to filter through to the markets and longer still before we see it impact consumer confidence. “We’re only now seeing the benefit that has come from the previous freeze on interest rates and so to have lowered them today would have been somewhat premature.
“However, given this week’s reading on inflation, we hope that the next decision will be a cut. Failing to do so could plunge the economy into a period of negligible growth for the foreseeable future and it’s about time we started to stimulate a recovery”.
