Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions are down by 2% relative to September 2023 whilst seasonally adjusted residential transactions have fallen by 3% in October, continuing the decrease observed in September.
These are the latest figures released (30 November) from the HMRC which also reveal that transaction levels in October 2023 are 21% lower than in October 2022.
Commenting on the latest numbers Jackson Stopps chairman Nick Leeming says: “The market is embracing greater realism on pricing, reflecting a market that is more balanced with buyers now in the strongest negotiating position in five years.
“Today’s figures reflect this shift, showing a small drop in transaction numbers from the previous month as the market continues to adjust. Comfortingly however, these figures are not too dissimilar from the transaction volumes seen in August 2020.
He adds: “It’s easy to suggest that a slowdown of any extent is bad news for the market, but the minimal month on month fall amidst a backdrop of stubborn inflation and high mortgage rates is a ringing endorsement for the resilience of the property market and buyer and lender confidence”.
Green Resi chief executive Anna Clare Harper says the fall in transactions is of little surprise at all.
“’Firstly, we are still coming down from a bubble caused by Covid and Stamp Duty reductions, which created double-digit house price growth for much of the past three years.
‘Secondly, the higher base rate is designed to cool demand and therefore pricing in the economy, and it is working to plan”.
She adds: “Sentiment is subdued across the property market. However, for investors it’s a time of opportunity since rental demand has never been stronger, and it is a good time to negotiate on purchase price.”
SPF Private Clients chief executive Mark Harris comments: “Transaction numbers have slipped again in the face of higher interest rates and the cost of living, as borrowers reassess what they can afford to pay.
“Encouragingly, the direction of travel for new mortgage rates is downwards, with fixed rates looking increasingly attractive. However, borrowers do have to accept that they will pay considerably more now than in the heady days of sub-1% mortgages.”
Harris concludes: “If the Bank of England holds rates again at the December meeting, this will further reinforce the belief that base rate has peaked.”
